TONY Fawdon didn’t have to do much to get a good grip on China’s current interest in mineral sands generally and zircon in particular.
While standing in the lobby outside last week’s TZMI Congress in Hong Kong waiting to meet The Australian, the Diatreme Resources executive chairman had representatives from three separate Chinese companies approach him to ask about securing offtake from Diatreme’s early stage Cyclone mineral sands project in Western Australia’s Eucla Basin.
That’s despite the fact Diatreme is still a $25 million minnow with a lot of work to do before it can get Cyclone into production, which Fawdon hopes will take place by 2014.
The level of interest being shown by customers towards less advanced players like Diatreme is indicative of the eagerness being shown by Chinese buyers of zircon and other mineral sands.
The prevailing mood over the two-day TZMI forum, which ranks as the key annual get-together for all participants in the mineral sands business, was an air of quiet self-confidence among miners and a faint whiff of panic among buyers who are increasingly concerned over supply.
There was also a distinct hint of opportunism from the much stronger turnout from investors and fund managers at this year’s event, eager to get a piece of what has been one of the best performed pockets of the resources sector in the past year.
The continued strength of demand from China for zircon and the other mineral sands, coupled with only a few significant sources of new supply, has helped make Perth-based Iluka Resources one of the best performed stocks on the ASX.
It’s also driven ASX-listed Mineral Deposits and Base Resources to pursue big new developments on either side of Africa, and left Diatreme weighing up Chinese deals that could force the market into a re-rating of its stock.
For all the uncertainty that has gripped equity markets this year, mineral sands remain in a sweet spot. Industry consultant TZMI forecasts demand to significantly eclipse supply of zircon in the coming years, explaining why buyers were so eager to talk offtake deals at this year’s event.
The industry is not immune to the uncertainty that has gripped markets in recent years, but the fundamentals in the zircon market appear sounder than other parts of the mining industry.
The major end use for zircon is in ceramics and tiles.
Iluka chief executive David Robb says the regions with a cultural predisposition towards tiles and ceramics, such as Asia and the Middle East, are not those regions where countries are buckling under the weight of government debt and mismanagement.
Another reason for optimism among the mineral sands miners is that rising commodity prices haven’t hurt the profitability of the customers buying them.
Robb says Iluka’s customers are becoming more profitable even as they pay more for their feedstock. The products sold by Iluka represent only a small portion of the cost of the end product, meaning big increases in mineral sands prices have been easily passed on from Iluka’s customers to consumers.
The improved market dynamics have helped Iluka shares increase from a low of $2.69 in mid-2009 to $17.52 on Friday, with the company now boasting a market capitalisation of about $7.3 billion.
Merrill Lynch forecasts Iluka to post a net profit before one-offs of $535m this year and more than $1bn next year, compared with the $84m loss in 2009. Robb and his fellow directors are weighing up just what Iluka does with that cash, but is giving away little as to what its windfall will mean in terms of dividends or acquisitions.
“It is important to us that this is not a flash in the pan, that this is a sustained, high-returns business,” Robb says.
“We’ve got a long way to go before we can look back on a long period of achievement, and I don’t think we would be so arrogant as to claim success based on only 12 to 18 months.”
Much of the TZMI conference focused on the new sources of supply being lined up, but Robb believes much of the new capacity will only cover the growth in demand from China alone, not other growing markets such as Indonesia and India.
Jean-Francois Turgeon, managing director of Rio Tinto’s iron and titanium division, adds his voice to those flagging a healthy outlook for the sector.
Turgeon says central and western China continue to boom, contributing to a forecast doubling in demand for Rio’s mineral sands over the next 15 years.
“There’s been little new capacity investment over the past decade,” he says. “Major ore bodies are nearing depletion, and bringing new ore bodies on line will not happen overnight.”
Rio used the conference to flag a major — if long-dated — overhaul of its international mineral sands operations, with Turgeon outlining Project TiO4.
The project involves developing two new mineral sands discoveries in Mozambique, improving efficiencies in Rio’s Madagascar operation, rejuvenating the ageing Richards Bay mine in South Africa and finding a way to increase volumes at its Canadian mines. It has already committed $US800m earlier this year to extending the life of its Canadian operations until 2050.
There is very little detail about how much the program will cost or what sort of production increase it will lead to, but Turgeon says the expansion will rank as significant “even in a Rio Tinto sense”.
Despite all the talk about new sources of supply, no one is forecasting a return to oversupply soon.
Goldman Sachs resources strategist Malcolm Southwood notes that China — which is driving demand growth — has very few domestic sources of mineral sands.
“The commodities you want to be investing in are the ones that China struggles to supply for itself,” he says.
And there seems little chance of China finding makeshift solutions to its shortages, as it has by mining low-grade iron ore and importing poor-quality nickel ore.
“China always has the capacity to surprise us when it comes to the supply of raw materials,” Southwood says.
“But geologically, it seems there’s little likelihood that China will become more significant in zircon production and ilmenite production, certainly not in high-grade rutile production,” Southwood says.
Fawdon, meanwhile, won’t be giving away the offtake rights being sought by any of those Chinese firms soon, unless they provide cash to help in the project’s development. The mineral sands market firmly seems to be favouring the miners, and Fawdon is determined to exploit that situation.
作者：Paul Garvey
出自：澳大利亚人报
日期：2011年11月14日
图为工人在雨克拉盆地（Eucla Basin）蒂亚特米资源公司（Diatreme Resources）的西克隆勘探地块（Cyclone prospect）进行钻探工作
不费吹灰之力，东尼佛顿（Tony Fawdon）就了解到中国目前对矿砂的兴趣，尤其是对锆石的兴趣。
上星期他出席了在香港举行的TZMI国际矿业会议。站在酒店的大堂等候澳大利亚人报的记者采访的时候，三位来自不同中国公司的代表主动过来与这位蒂亚特米资源公司的执行主席搭话，想要知道如何能预购其公司在西澳雨克拉盆地的西克隆矿砂项目的产品，而此项目仅处初期阶段而已。
蒂亚特米现在还只是一间资金为2千5百万的小矿业公司，离西克隆项目开始出产还需披荆斩棘。佛顿寄望于2014年开始生产。
客户对蒂亚特米这类尚处开发初期的公司都表达出这么高的兴趣，由此可见中国买家对锆石和其他矿砂的热切程度。
TZMI国际矿业会议是矿砂业从业者的主要年度碰头会议，而这两天会议的总体气氛感觉是：采矿方具自信，而买方略显恐慌，担忧供应货源。
今年参加会议的投资者和基金经理人比往年多了许多，透露出一丝独特的投机倾向，大家都想从去年资源领域表现最佳的这块来分得一杯羹。
中国对锆石和其他矿砂的需求势头仍然强劲，再加上新的大供货方寥寥无几，因此，珀斯的艾露卡资源公司（Iluka Resources）成为澳洲证券市场（ASX）表现的佼佼者。
也正因为如此，澳洲上市公司Mineral Deposits and Base资源公司在整个非洲寻求新的大型开发项目，这使得蒂亚特米也得好好考虑如何进行中国的交易。这有可能让市场重新对其股票进行评级。
今年资产市场动荡不安，但矿砂却走势良好。行业顾问TZMI公司预测，未来几年锆石将出现严重的供不应求。这也就说明了为什么买方会在今年的会议上对预购交易如此热切。
近年整个市场的局势不稳，此行业也无法免俗，但锆石市场基本情况看似比其他矿业部分更明朗些。
锆石的主要终端用户是陶瓷业和瓷砖业。
艾露卡资源公司执行总裁大卫罗布（David Robb）称，素来文化上倾向于使用陶瓷和瓷砖的地区，如亚洲和中东都不是那些政府债务过多或管理不当的国家所在区域。
矿砂采矿方对前景乐观的另一个原因是商品价格的上涨并没有伤及到买方的盈利度。
罗布说，艾露卡的客户利润越来越高，即使是入货更贵了。艾露卡出售的产品仅仅占了终端产品成本的一小部分，也就是说矿砂价格高涨，艾露卡客户也能轻而易举地转嫁给其客户。
市场动态好转让艾露卡的股票从09年年中的$2.69澳元升到了星期五的$17.52澳元。该公司现在声称其市场资金为73亿。
美林证券预测艾露卡今年将公布纯利5.35亿澳元，明年将公布纯利超过10亿。这与09年的8千4百万亏损相比有天渊之别。罗布和公司董事正在考虑艾露卡该如何利用这笔现金，但就如何对此笔收入进行分配或用于收购，他们不愿透露任何风声。
“我们必须确保公司不是只赚一次钱，公司必须是持续不断地提供高回报。”罗布说。
“我们还有很长的一段路要走，这样才能回过头来看到长期的成就，我们不能仅根据12-18个月的表现就轻狂自大。”
TZMI会议大部分时间都集中在确定新的供货货源，但罗布认为，新的供应将仅能提供中国一方的增长需求，还没有顾及到其他的市场，如印尼和印度的增长需求。
力拓铁和钛金属部分的执行董事特正（Jean-Francois Turgeon）也认同，认为此行业前景良好。
特正说，因为中国的中部和西部还在继续开发，力拓对矿砂未来15年的预测为现时的两倍。
“过去10年没有进行资产投资。”他说：“主要的矿体都快采完了，而要开采新矿体需要时间，不可能一蹴而就。”
力拓利用此次会议对其国际矿砂运营进行了一次蓄谋已久的大整顿。特正称此为Ti04项目。
此项目包括对莫桑比克的两个新矿砂资源进行开发，提高力拓的马达加斯加运营效率，对南非年岁已久的理查德湾矿山进行注资，并想法增加其加拿大的矿山的产量。今年早前力拓已经决定注资8亿美元将其在加拿大的采矿运营延长至2050年。
关于此项目的成本或因此而增产的产品为何，力拓透露的具体信息不多，但特正说此次的扩建是大规模的，而且是力拓概念里的大规模。
虽然谈了许多的新供货货源，但没有人预测说会很快有供过于求的情况。
高盛证券的资源策划师邵武（Malcolm Southwood）提到，驱使需求增长的是中国，而中国本身没有多少矿砂资源可供应。
“你要投资的商品是那些中国本身无法满足供应的商品。”他说。
而且中国对此短缺情况寻求其他替代解决方案的几率也很微小。虽然铁和镍能用开采低品位的铁矿石和进口低品质的镍矿来替代解决。
“在原材料的供应方面，中国总是有能力来个出其不意。”邵武称。
“但从地质上来讲，中国要在锆石生产、钛铁矿生产，特别是在高品位的金红石生产方面提高产量是不太可能的。”邵武说。
而与此同时，佛顿不会在近期轻易地将预购权给予任何的中国公司，除非他们能对项目的开发提供现金援助。矿砂市场看来对采矿方有利。佛顿一定会对此机会好好加以利用的。
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